The biggest missmatch of the Bowl Season it was billed as soon it the selection was made. Northern Illinois vs. Florida State.  After all, the Huskies lost to Iowa and barely beat Army and Kansas in non-conference games.  Nevermind the fact that Florida State is  0-3 in it’s last 3 Orange Bowls.   Let’s be honest, other than Clemson’s victory over LSU, has the ACC had any bowl game this year in which the conference looked stellar?  Absolutely not.  Considering Duke and NC State were clearly outmatched in their bowl games.  While, George Tech beat a USC teamthat lost 5 of their last 6.  Virginia Tech barely survived in the rain against Rutgers, despite looking like the inferior team for much of the game.  Ignore the fact that Florida Statewas hoping for a more prestigious team for ther bowl game, if not a potential BCS Championship bid, headed into their game against Florida.  This is the same team that struggled against NC State, barely got by Virginia Tech who struggled in their bowl games.  Well, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised if Florida State keeps things close.  The truth is, as any true football analyst knows, the ACC is overrated, and playing close to home, a group of 18-21 year olds have talked about how little they know about Northern Illinois.  Nevermind the fact that by now  they have had plenty of time to look at tape of the Huskies.  It would appear if talking points with the Seminole youngsters can be used as evidence, it’s that this team isn’t studying what the Huskies do well.
While on paper, the Seminoles look impressive averaging 39.9 PPG and allowing just 15.1 PPG.  However,  threeof those games were against awful competition (Murray State -Division FCS, Savannah State -lost to Oklahoma State 84-0,and Wake Forest).  Taking in account for deviation from the standard mean, and Florida State’s scoring average comes down to 32.7 PPG,still a decent total, but not as impressive.  When taking in account for the same games, their normal average allowed in games goes up to 20.67 PPG.  When taking in account for quality of opponent average, Northern Illinois’ impressive total of 40.8 PPG comes down to 38.8 PPG.  Doing the samewith their defensive output and their total allowed per game comes up to 25.5 PPG.
Other than confusion in what these numbers mean, let me summarize it like this, and it won’t be shocking. The Northern Illinois offense fared almost as equally well against defenses despite the strength of each defense unit.  Their defense allowed more points against quality offenses.  Likewise,the Seminoles scored significantly less against quality defenses, and they allowed significantly more points against quality offenses.  What it allmeans is that if emotional letdowns, and the emotions of the game could betaken out, we could expect Florida State to score near 30 points, and the Huskies would score around 27.  However, it fails to account that Florida State isn’t excited about playing in the Orange Bowl against a team their young group doesn’t see as worth adequate game preparation.  I agree it would be a shock for Northern Illinois to pull out the victory, but it won’t be a shock for them to keep this game close, in fact statistically they should remain within one score for the entire game.
How  do the Huskies keep the game close?  The battle of the game will come down to the Huskies ability to move the ball on the ground against Florida State.  Florida State only allowed 92.6 YPG on the ground.  Closer examination though shows that Florida gained 244 yards on the ground against Florida State.  In a similar fashion,Georgia Tech gained 183 yards on the ground in their ACC Championship meeting.   Obviously, quality rushing offenses have moved the ball against the Seminoles.   While, in no way can we expect the Huskies, who average 250.2 YPG on the ground, to maintain their season average, 200 yards could occur, and certainly over 150 yards will occur.  In doing so, they will keep the game close.
On Defense look for QB pressure to keep the Huskies close as well as by winning the turnover battle.  The Huskies don’t turn the ball over, and won the season turnover margin by +12.  Florida State on the other hand comes in at -7.  For the Huskies,it is QB Jordan Lynch that is largely responsiblefor them winning the turnover battle as he only threw  5 interceptions all season long.  The Huskies also used QB pressure, with over 2.9 sacks to translate into over 1 interception per game.  Look for much of the same as the Seminoles allow  QB pressure, and EJ Manuel has een incomsistent in games where pressured (see NC State, Virginia Tech,and Florida).
Again, the stats show that it’s more unlikely for this game to be a blowout than close.  Look for the Huskies to keep things close and lose a tough one that will leave most of the country impressed, and their players disappointed.  Take the points tonight with the Huskies, and get off to a good start to 2013!
Pick: Northern Illinois +14

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баскетбол нба!денвер-миннесота фора 1 -7!тоже думаю зайдет!

незачто)главное чтоб сыграло!)

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