HomeAbout UsTestimonialsKansas State vs Syracuse: Free College Basketball Picks
In: College Hoops Free Picks

17 Mar 2012

Jason Storm
Free Picks

153-101-1
Overall Record
College Basketball Predictions: Kansas State (+5) vs. Syracuse
(-5) Over – Under 134

All eyes were on Syracuse in round two. It’s not because many people
believed they were actually going to be the 1st ever #1 seed to lose to a #16
seed. It was because the news surfaced that Fab Melo, the teams starting center,
and most efficient big guy was ruled ineligible for the rest of the
tournament.

Analyst and fans alike were curious of the effect it would
have on Syracuse’s performance. They were a legitimate national Championship
contender, ranked in the top 5 much of the year and rightfully so after only
losing 1 game during the regular season. The one game they did lose it was
because Fab Melo was out. Everyone wanted to know how Syracuse respond when it
mattered.

Syracuse came out flat and really struggled with a #16 seed UNC
- Ashville, a team that is pretty much unknown to the entire country. They were
down at 4 at half time and need some controversial calls at the end to secure
the win. To say the least, many were not impressed with a Fab Melo-less Orange
team.

Because of that we have a small line between Kansas State and
Syracuse. If this happened earlier in the year, this would be a much larger
point spread.

There is a ton of value in this Syracuse line! Syracuse is a great because
they play defense, force turnovers, and have tremendous depth. The most
important fact is that this Orange team forces a ton of turnovers: 8th most in
the country. More than 16 a game. If they can force turnovers against Kansas
State they are going to win.
Problem is that Kansas State is that turn it over a ton, 460 on the year,
that’s 257th in the nation. This zone defense is going to be challenging for
Kansas State, and 3 of their top 4 guards are underclassmen. I don’t want to
trust them against a different kind of defense they are not use to. There is
going to be a giant learning curve playing against this 2-3 zone. This is the
key to the game.

I know Fab Melo is out and it does hurt Syracuse but its
not nearly as big of a loss that the media is making it out to be. Melo didn’t
dominate any statistical category other than blocks, and as important as blocks
are, against this zone it’s tough to get the ball inside anyway. This Syracuse
team has the best depth in the entire country. It’s going to take an elite
performance by anyone to knock them off.

Kansas State is too young and inexperienced to be able to handle
Syracuse’s defense that ranks 12th in the nation in shooting percentage and 8th
in total turnovers.

Pick Syracuse -5

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